Category Archives: Mortality

Right care: wrong answers

Dropkin, G. Journal of Public Health, https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdx136

Published: 03 November 2017

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Background

NHS RightCare is an NHS England programme describing itself as ‘a proven approach that delivers better patient outcomes’. It identifies opportunities for savings and quality improvements, comparing each Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) with the ‘Best 5’ of a fixed set of ‘Similar 10’ CCGs chosen using equally weighted demographic and deprivation indicators. This article tests whether these indicators are sufficient and equal weighting is appropriate, and evaluates significance.

Methods

Robust public data on lung, colorectal, and breast cancer mortality is modelled using the indicators and incidence. Peers chosen using the preferred models are compared with the Similar 10. Confidence intervals are obtained for comparator group averages. RightCare significance is simulated.

Results

Preferred models have unequally weighted covariates. Incidence is the strongest predictor of lung cancer mortality. The ‘Similar 10’ are inappropriate comparators. RightCare significance ignores variability of comparator outcomes, causing 12% Type I errors. Whilst RightCare shows 1842 annual avoidable lung cancer deaths in 80 CCGs, only 168 deaths in 8 CCGs appear exceptional using appropriate peers and CIs.

Conclusion

CCGs cannot expect to match the average performance of the RightCare ‘Best 5’. Until the methodology is examined with data of known quality, claims that RightCare is a ‘proven approach’ are unsubstantiated.

 

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Current, future and avoidable costs of stroke in the UK – Societal costs of stroke in the next 20 years and potential returns from increased spending on research

By The Stroke Association (2017)

This report estimates that the current cost of stroke to the UK is £26 billion every year, a threefold increase from the previous estimated cost of £9 billion. The figures also predict that a growing and ageing population, increasing numbers of stroke survivors, and rising care costs are crucial factors behind the increasing financial burden of stroke over the next 20 years.

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Local alcohol profiles for England: mortality indicators, 2016 annual data update

By Public Health England (2016)

This quarterly update includes:

  • the addition of 2014 deaths to the 4 mortality indicators
  • an adjustment to mortality values across the previous years (because of a change in ICD10 coding for the most recent year)
  • a new drink driving indicator

Click here to view these stats

Maternal smoking and the risk of still birth: systematic review and meta-analysis

Marufu, T.C et al (2015) BMC Public Health, 15: 239

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Abstract

Background

Smoking in pregnancy is known to be associated with a range of adverse pregnancy outcomes, yet there is a high prevalence of smoking among pregnant women in many countries, and it remains a major public health concern. We have conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to provide contemporary estimates of the association between maternal smoking in pregnancy and the risk of stillbirth.

Methods

We searched four databases namely MEDLINE, EMBASE, Psych Info and Web of Science for all relevant original studies published until 31st December 2012. We included observational studies that measured the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy and the risk of stillbirth.

Results

1766 studies were screened for title analysis, of which 34 papers (21 cohorts, 8 case controls and 5 cross sectional studies) met the inclusion criteria. In meta-analysis smoking during pregnancy was significantly associated with a 47% increase in the odds of stillbirth (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.37, 1.57, p < 0.0001). In subgroup analysis, smoking 1-9 cig/day and ≥10 cig/day was associated with an 9% and 52% increase in the odds of stillbirth respectively. Subsequently, studies defining stillbirth at ≥ 20 weeks demonstrated a 43% increase in odds for smoking mothers compared to mothers who do not smoke, (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.32, 1.54, p < 0.0001), whereas studies with stillbirth defined at ≥ 24 weeks and ≥ 28 weeks showed 58% and 33% increase in the odds of stillbirth respectively.

Conclusion

Our review confirms a dose-response effect of maternal smoking in pregnancy on risk of stillbirth. To minimise the risk of stillbirth, reducing current smoking prevalence in pregnancy should continue to be a key public health high priority.

Health and social care priorities for the Government: 2015-2020

By The Nuffield Trust (2015)

This briefing outlines ten possible key health and social care priorities for the new government, covering funding and finance, quality of care, new models of care and workforce.

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OECD outlines action for governments to tackle heavy cost of harmful drinking

By OECD (2015)

Harmful drinking is on the rise among young people and women in many OECD countries, partly due to alcohol becoming more available, more affordable and more effectively advertised, according to a new OECD report. Click here to view this report

NEW EBOOKS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH LANCASHIRE STAFF

20 ebooks relating to Public Health have been purchased and are all freely accessible to all Public Heath Lancashire staff with an Athens username and password. 

To view these books and apply for an Athens username click on the ‘New eBooks’ tab on the blogs homepage